Pro Football Focus, or PFF, is a stats and analytics website that covers college and pro football. I am a subscriber as I love the numbers. Is it the Ken Pomeroy of College Football? Probably not, but it’s darned entertaining and valuable to me.
On Saturday, they released their ‘first run’ of metrics and simulations for the coming season. Here is that link. This, from the linked item: ‘The first run of PFF’s college football metrics and simulation happened last week. We have not only our initial rankings in place but also results from our simulation for conference and national championship odds. Let’s take a closer look at our current top 25, with later pieces focusing on the best bets to make for conference and national championship winners.”
Here is how they have the Big Ten:
3. Ohio State
19. Penn State
70. Michigan State
They also have Iowa State at 21.
As for Iowa at nine, that’s a little lofty for my vision right now. There are a number of significant question marks that I see as obstacles for the 2021 Hawkeyes.
1. The development of Spencer Petras
2. The development at offensive tackle
3. The development at defensive line
Yeah, for Iowa, those are some pretty big areas…and while I am optimistic in numbers two and three, I remain at a ‘wait and see’ stage for #1. It’s encouraging that Petras is working out on his own with a QB coach, the same one Nate Stanley hired prior to the NFL draft a few years back. Petras also has the physical tools…and he wants to achieve so badly…sometimes, too badly, as it shows up with him pressing on the field and we see a breakdown in fundamentals. The fact that he is making this investment in his fundamentals is a really nice thing to see and I am all for him having an ‘up and to the right’ kind of trajectory this year.