FOOTBALL

Big Ten Win Totals

Jon here..they can take away my twitter, but they can’t take away my fingers!   For now, I set up an alternate twitter account @jondmiller.   I am hoping twitter reinstates my @hawkeyepodcast account soon…it’s been 11 days since they suspended the account and I still have zero idea as to what twitter rules I may have broken, other than disagreeing with Elon Musk and pointing out his hypocrisy.  But hey, that could be enough in these times.  But I digress…

Lets talk college football win totals.  Draft Kings has released theirs for the 2021 season.  Here are the totals for the Big Ten, in alphabetical order:

Illinois: 3.0
Iowa: 8.5
Indiana: 8.0
Maryland: 5.5
Michigan: 8.0
Michigan State: 4.0
Minnesota: 7.0
Nebraska: 6.0
Northwestern: 6.5
Ohio State: 11.0
Penn State: 9.0
Purdue: 5.0
Wisconsin: 9.5

For some reason, Rutgers was not listed on DraftKing’s website.

Iowa State is on Iowa’s schedule, as always, and their total is 9.5.

The following is most certainly NOT financial advice, and just a WAG, without having spent much time researching the teams. I will toss out an off the cuff pick here for each Big Ten team:

Illinois: 3.0: OVER
Iowa: 8.5. UNDER
Indiana: 8.0 OVER (on it)
Maryland: 5.5 UNDER
Michigan: 8.0 UNDER
Michigan State: 4.0 OVER (on it)
Minnesota: 7.0 UNDER
Nebraska: 6.0 UNDER
Northwestern: 6.5 UNDER
Ohio State: 11.0 UNDER (on it)
Penn State: 9.0 UNDER
Purdue: 5.0 UNDER
Wisconsin: 9.5 OVER

THOUGHTS: Iowa’s number feels more like an 8 to me than an 8.5. While Iowa doesn’t have any automatic losses on the schedule from my view, they begin against Indiana and Iowa State. Spencer Petras still has a number of question marks, and his first true, hostile-road game start will be in Ames. Iowa is also a developmental program and September is definitely a developmental month for them. It is not at all hard to see an 0-2 start staring Iowa in the face. If Iowa splits in their first two games, I will be ecstatic and think nine wins is within reach. If they go 0-2, I don’t see the math in getting to nine wins. So I take the under. INDIANA: Since I am not gonna wuss out and say PUSH, I will take the over, but eight feels more comfortable. However, the Big Ten East is not as formidable as it once was. It’s Ohio State and then a huge gap, and Indiana might be the second best team in that division. NORTHWESTERN: Quarterback play matters everywhere, but maybe no other Big Ten team has as much season to season volatility based on quarterback play as the Cats. They have some athletes in the stable. However, I will go under and make my annual mistake of underestimating the Cats. WISCONSIN: Their schedule sets ups well. ALL of their more challenging conference games are at home; Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern and Nebraska. Well, they do travel to Minnesota, but still.

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