Here we are coming out of port and setting sail into the Horse Latitudes, the summer drift that takes us wherever. The destination is obviously the season. We’ll do some things here that oddball (don’t ask me what they’ll be, you’ll know them when we see them, probably no satire because no one really knows what that is), and we’ll do some things that lead you to the dock on the shore that is the season.
This is going to be one of those.
There will be a series of posts. First one or two will be done before fishing June 3-12. I’m looking at each unit from teams on Iowa’s schedule. I’m going to call it “The Look Ahead.” The idea is that you have a general idea of what the Hawkeyes might look like. This is for some specifics on the Hawkeyes’ schedule.
I’m going to give points for three categories — experience, production and NFLness/all-B1G.
NFLness might not factor for many. It’s painfully subjective this early. I’m going to see if there’s a reputable 7-round, but most likely I’ll be doing Kiper and someone from one of the other big sites’ guys (maybe Bleacher Report guy, maybe the NFL Network).
NFLness will be awarded like bonus points. Or it adds up to zilch. Remember, Tristan Wirfs wasn’t on a first-round board in June of his junior year, so I know there might not be much to tally here.
The winner, hopefully, will come out of the two main categories.
Scoring for experience
— Years as a starter
It’ll be +1 for every year as a starter. If the school counts a dude with seven starts as a returning starter, I am, too.
2 points for a 2-year starter, 1 point for 1 year, at least 50 snaps will be .5 and cold rookie will be 0.
Scoring for production
Let’s start with tackles.
50-plus is +5
40+ is +4
30+ is +3
20+ is +2
10 or less is +1
Interception? You get a plus for the one from the 2020 season. So, Desmond King would’ve been a +8 in 2016. Same with PBUs. If there’s a ball-hawking demon returning, I want to pay that dude respect.
This obviously will work differently for other units, but I think the general structure of experience, production, NFLness/returning all-B1G honors should give it a foundation.
This also might be tricky. My simple idea is 14 to 1 point for where each unit finished in the Big Ten last season. The categories for secondary that I picked are INTs, PBUs, completion percentage and yards per attempt. Obviously, if, say Indiana, finished No. 1 in pass defense last year and graduated everyone, you note that.
I’m going to pick two first-round mocks, probably Kiper and Daniel Jeremiah. I’ll look for a reputable 7, but that’s inviting sketchiness, IMO. If a guy is getting first-round buzz, it’s +2.
For returning all-conference, I think this:
+6 for first-team unanimous
+5 for first team
+4 second team
+2 for HM
Digging into this today. If anyone sees a major disconnect or an obvious hole in the operation, get at me on Twitter (@marcmorehouse) and sell me.
I’m hoping to strip away projection and build a reasonable expectation that may or may not happen anyway.
The above will be adjusted for each position group. O-line will favor experience. The dudes put up stats that no one keeps. If a guy is getting snaps, that’s probably the best guide.
And here we go.